The Nile, the longest river in the world, is located in Africa. It flows to the north and has two main branches, the White Nile and the Blue Nile. The total length of the river is 6,670 km, and the Nile basin covers 3.4 million km in eleven African countries, known as the Nile Basin countries. [1] Although the Blue Nile is shorter than the White Nile, it provides more than 80% of the water flowing through the river below the confluence in Khartoum.

The Nile was, and remains, a rich source of beautiful meaning and description for poets, literati, and artists. The Nile for the people of the Basin, and for Egyptians, in particular, is like the alphabet of life in which they journey day by day.

 

The ancient Egyptians appreciated the importance of the Nile in their lives and thus gifted it their most beautiful daughters to continue its flow. The river is so important to them that, as mentioned in the Egyptian Book of the Dead, in the past a deceased person was declared innocent of many things including that he did not pollute the Nile. 

 

One of the first historians to visit Egypt was Hecataeus of Miletu, who travelled there in 520 BC, followed by Herodotus in 450 BC. Both mentioned the famous saying “Egypt is the gift of the Nile”.[2]  The famous English poet, John Milton (1674-1608), in his renowned book “Paradise Lost” mentioned Egypt and the Nile numerous times.[3] In the past, the Nile was more associated with Egypt than with other African countries because the Delta and Estuary basins are both on the Egyptian shores of the Mediterranean Sea.

 

Despite that, we find many travellers who tracked and followed the path of the Nile River and visited Sudan and/or Ethiopia, in addition to Egypt. Among those travellers were Charles-Jacques Poncet in 1699[4], James Bruce in 1772[5], and John Lewis Burckhardt in 1813[6], the German Prince Puckler  Muskau in 1837[7] and Sir Harold MacMichael in 1916[8].  

 

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

 

At the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) (hereafter “GERD”, “The Dam”) attracted the headlines of international news agencies. The GERD, situated on the Blue Nile, is a huge hydroelectric energy project which costs around US $4.8 billion.[9] The project will provide a major boost to the Ethiopian economy. According to statements made by the Ethiopian government, the aim of the dam project is to provide the electricity to 70% of the Ethiopian houses that are currently without power.[10] It is the key element of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s plan to transform the country into a major energy exporter in the region.

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The Dam will also create significant political ramifications for Egypt and Sudan.  It is located in the northern part of Ethiopia, 15 km from the Sudanese border, extending over an area of 1,800 square km. The dam is planned to hold 74 billion cubic metres of water, equivalent to Egypt's and Sudan’s shares of the Nile: 55 billion cubic metres and 18.5 billion cubic metres respectively.[11]

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After a decade of negotiations, differences over GERD and timetable for filling the dam still exist. Ethiopia continues the construction of the Dam and plans to fill it. Egypt and Sudan, however, claim that Ethiopia is violating the sovereignty of both countries and threatening their economic development. Ethiopia's repeated statements about its intention to fill the dam, whether there is an agreement or not, have raised Egypt’s and Sudan’s concerns, as two countries fear that diverting the river flow to fill the dam at a rapid pace will profoundly affect their water supplies.

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From a geopolitical perspective, Ethiopia would perhaps gain influence, power, and a potential strategic weapon, which would enable its control over the flow of the Nile water. It has chosen a geopolitically strategic location for the dam; only 15 km from the border with Sudan. For Ethiopia, a country of 117 million people,[12]  the success of the GERD project is essential to strengthen Addis Ababa's political clout in the Region, but also to unify a nation under great stress from ethnic violence.

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The Ethiopian government views the dam as a development, which is essential for economic recovery of the country. Despite an immense power of the Blue Nile waters from Lake Tana, the Ethiopians have lived for centuries without harnessing it for economic purposes. Much of the population remains without electricity relying on the dwindling forests for firewood to provide energy for their daily needs. The Ethiopian government believes that the project will meet an urgent need to lift millions of citizens out of extreme poverty: nearly two-thirds of school children in Ethiopia are forced to stay in the dark, and millions of women still travel long distances to collect firewood. 

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The Renaissance Dam project has become a key focus of Ethiopian national pride, winning the support of thegovernment coalition, the opposition and the people. The dam has become a unifying factor for the Ethiopians. The phrase (ግድብ ነው) “it is my dam” is prominent on social media platforms and it became a theme for national songs.[13] The Ethiopian government mobilised social media to shape the views of the population on the GERD project. Using the media for propaganda and charging the Ethiopian people was the most important weapon of The Ethiopian government has made extensive use of social media in marketing its agenda for building the dam - to benefit from the Nile for development, to fight poverty, develop irrigation systems, establish farms, generate electricity and build factories.

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In their posts on Twitter, Ethiopians shared a picture of a woman carrying firewood, indicating that when the dam starts operating, "many Ethiopian women and mothers would no longer have to collect firewood for fuel." 

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The vision of a dam is an old one. The Ethiopians  launched the project between 1956 – 1964 during the reign of Emperor Haile Selassie, when American studies were conducted and a suitable site determined, but political turmoil in Ethiopia and the military coup against Emperor Selassie in 1974 prevented the project from being implemented at that time. For many years, political turmoil prevailed in Ethiopia leaving the project in a deep freeze. In October 2009, the Ethiopian government began to survey the dam’s site and design plans. Ethiopia had concerns over likely reactions from Egypt and Sudan, especially Egypt as the largest estuary country and the one which is most likely to be affected during the dam filling period. 

 

The Arab Spring gives Ethiopia a window of opportunity

 

From 2011 the eruption of revolution in Cairo plunged Egypt into internal turmoil. The Egyptian state became exclusively preoccupied with their internal problems and the maintenance of state’s stability for some years rendering it incapable of intervening in Ethiopian’s plans. Ethiopia took advantage of this opportunity and mobilised its support for the project by launching the bond issue to finance the dam. The construction began in April 2011.

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The completion of the dam became a race against time. It was fundamentally important for the project to be completed before Egypt recovers from its domestic instabilities. Addis Ababa insisted on Ethiopia’s right to construct the dam to address the shortage of electricity in its villages and rural areas, to expand its industrial base, and generate a new source of income through the export of electricity to neighbouring countries.

 

Disagreements escalate

 

Egypt, the greater estuary country, perceives the Ethiopian project as a threat to its economy and national security. For Cairo, the GERD threatens the flow of the Nile, the eternal icon of Egyptians which is considered its “lifeline” and most vital resource. Most of the 104 million Egyptians[14] live around the narrow Nile valley along the length of the river and heavily depend on it: from drinking water to industry and irrigation. Thus, there are fears over potentially devastating effects on Egypt’s economy as well as its environmental and food resources. It even puts Egypt in a position of permanent threat on the part of Addis Ababa.

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Egyptian social media accounts tweeted “where was Ethiopia when our ancestors were building this civilizationon the banks of the Nile seven thousand years ago. Is there a historically clearer right than the right of Egypt to the Nile?” These tweets and others symbolise the Egyptians’ fears for a future decline in the Nile waters which could expose the land of the Pharaohs to drought.

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Egypt calls on Ethiopia to respect the old agreements, including the 1902 treaty signed by Menilek II, Emperor of Abyssinia, which outlined Abyssinia’s commitment not to start any project related to the Nile without referring to Egypt and Sudan.
 

Throughout the 20th century, the Nile was a source of political conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia. A war almost erupted in 1979, when Egypt responded to the Ethiopian efforts to build a dam by amassing its forces in Sudan. Also in 1994, Egypt hinted at resorting to military action against Ethiopia when Addis Ababa revealed plans to build a dam on the Blue Nile in its territories. Many factors contributed to fueling this dispute. One of the central factors is the recognition of Egypt's "natural and historical right to the waters of the Nile" in the Anglo-Egyptian Treaty in 1929 by Britain.[15] The Treaty stipulated that the upstream countries had to respect these rights. The Egyptians claim that they have an acquired historical right and current use of the Nile, regardless of these agreements of the colonial era. Ethiopia, for its part, is not concerned with Egypt's nostalgia for its ancient past.

 

Ethiopia discounts the cultural, heritage and religious importance that Egypt attaches to the Nile, but rather raises more practical claims. According to Ethiopia, the Blue Nile originates and flows from its lands, which is sufficient to grant the country ownership and sovereignty over it. Addis Ababa adds that the colonial arrangements were unfair towards it because it was not party to them and as such Ethiopia believes that these agreements are not binding. It strongly opposes any attempt to undermine the sovereignty of its decisions regarding the dam. In its statements, the Ethiopian government also pointed to the Aswan High Dam, which Egypt started building in 1960 without any consultation with the States in the region.

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It is worth noting that Sudan, after gaining independence in 1956, expressed its dissatisfaction with the water-sharing provisions outlined in the treaty of 1929. The agreement facilitated an unfair Egyptian monopoly over the waters of the Nile and ignored Ethiopian claims. The dispute between Cairo and  Khartoum was resolved by the 1959 agreement, which allocated of an annual 18.5 billion cubic metres to Sudan and 55.5 billion cubic metres to Egypt. Agreements signed in 1929 and 1959 gave Egypt and Sudan the lion’s share of the Nile’s waters. Ethiopia does not recognise the treaties referring to them as "agreements from the colonial period".[16] To further undermine these treaties, Ethiopia initiated a Cooperative Framework Agreement in 2010 with 6 countries in the Nile Basin to challenge the right of veto from Egypt and Sudan against the establishment of GERD.[17]

 

Principle sticking point

 

Ethiopia started filling the dam in July 2020 with 4.5 billion cubic metres of water, unilaterally, without referringto the downstream countries.[18] It also announced that it will start the second phase with 13.5 billion cubic metres in July 2021.[19] Most of the talks between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan revolve around the timetable for filling the dam and mitigate impacts of a drought. Ethiopia plans to fill the dam in 3 years while Egypt demands a filling period to extend to 10 or 15 years. Egypt is worried about the impact of filling the dam at a quick pace. It will reduce the water flow and its share from the Nile’s waters. 

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Cairo is concerned about any future drought or other projects that may impede the flow of the Nile's water, while Sudan believes that this will pose a threat to the lives of 20 million Sudanese living below the dam in the Blue Nile River Valley. It seems that there was a convergence of viewpoints, and observers believe that there was a verbal agreement to fill the dam in a 7-8-year programme, but the stalled negotiations prevented such agreement from being signed. Addis Ababa believes that Cairo failed to recognise Ethiopia’s generosity for centuries as the Ethiopians did not receive any benefit from the Nile; perhaps reflecting the cultural heritage of simplicity and austerity to which the Ethiopians were accustomed to. In December 2020, Ethiopia’s representative to the United Nations, Taye Atske Selassie, said to the Security Council that Ethiopia will not cause damage to Egypt and Sudan and that “…Ethiopia believes it has a national and moral imperative to do everything in its power to improve the lives of its people. GERD is an answer to Ethiopian mothers’ cries for help, so that they do not have to trek hours to collect firewood…"[20]

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Sudan, stuck between Egypt and Ethiopia, is attempting to find a balance between its desire not to provoke Egypt whilst protecting its big economic interests in the GERD. These interests gained an increasing importance in light of the country’s political transition to a post-Basheer era, after his removal from power in April 2019, and the loss of South Sudan oil revenues. The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, was surprised by Sudan's swinging position and lately blamed Khartoum, which for years praised the importance of the dam to prevent floods and regulate the flow of water for irrigation through the Sudanese lands, which are home to 45 million people.[21]

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This new position of Sudan may reflect an attempt to achieve a more favourable rate for low tariffs on electricity imported from the GERD. There is no doubt that their significant agricultural sector will benefit from receiving a stable flow of water from Ethiopia, increasing irrigation, and reducing floods.

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However, it has expressed its concerns over the public safety issues. The dam is located 15 km from the Sudanese borders. A potential dam failure could lead to the inundation of large areas of territories including Ad Damazin, the Capital of the Blue Nile Region and only 100 km downstream from the dam. It would also pose a threat to the important Sudanese Roseires Dam with its 280 MW hydroelectric power generator.[22]

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Mediation attempts unresolved
 

Sharp differences and reciprocal accusations between Ethiopia and Egypt erupted after the   delegate of Ethiopia to the United Nations refused to refer the issue of the GERD crisis to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), and accused Egypt of taking unilateral steps. Egypt rejected these accusations and submitted a draft resolution calling for the three countries (Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan) to reach an agreement at the earliest time. At the beginning of 2020, Egypt relied on American mediation in the hope of reaching a consensus, but Ethiopia withdrew from the talks.[23]  It stated that the agreement proposed by Washington included biased clauses in favor of Cairo regarding the mitigation of drought, according to Addis Ababa.

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Following the failure of the tripartite negotiations (Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan) on the GERD crisis in Kinshasa, under the auspices of the President of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, the current president of the African Union and the Egyptian Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, stated in a televised statement on 11 April 2021 that if Egypt suffers damage by diminishing its water rights, this shall be considered a hostile act, thereby invoking options in international law for dealing with hostilities, which are gradual, and begin with diplomatic measures indicating that “all options shall be on the table”.[24]

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Despite Saudi Arabia and UAE increasing their involvement in the Horn of Africa in the last decade,  Egypt cannot rely on its main Middle Eastern allies to pressure Ethiopia to adopt a more conciliatory approach. Ethiopia and Sudan play a vital role in providing food to UAE and Saudi Arabia. Both countries have strong relations with Addis Ababa, but there have been always attempts by both States to frame their role as “improving the negotiations atmosphere between the disputing parties” and not with the aim of “offering final and decisive solutions”.[25]

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The UAE and Saudi Arabia have a variety of incentives, including protecting their interests in food security,  sustaining their regional influence which they fought hard to gain, and exercising influence at  expense of Iran, Qatar, and Turkey. Also, it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia and the UAE would intervene  for the benefit of Egypt because the GERD might boost their food security and agricultural imports. The dam would improve the stable flow of water to their large rented Sudanese agricultural lands, improving production for these Saudi and Emirati companies.

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Saudi Arabia invested more than $3 billion in Ethiopia, including 141 projects in animal and agricultural production; as well as industrial initiatives that exceed 64 projects, in addition to other new projects in various other fields.[26]  Saudi Arabia was one of the first countries to invest in Ethiopia. Addis Ababa granted Saudi Arabia vastareas for agricultural investment, which benefited several Saudi companies. There are aspirations to increase the number of Saudi projects, through the several incentives offered by Addis Ababa to Saudi investors. These included customs exemption, the abolition of double taxation, and the delivery of electricity, while the Saudi Fund for Development provides financing and soft loans to stimulate development in rural Ethiopia.[27]

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Within two months of Abiy Ahmed becoming Ethiopia’s Prime Minister and amid the escalation of the GERD crisis, the Ethiopian government signed an agreement with the UAE in June 2018. Under this agreement, the UAE offered support of US $3 billion, US $1 billion of which was to be deposited into the Ethiopian Central Bank and US $2 billion for investment.[28] Between the years 2002 and 2020, 121 Emirati companies entered the Ethiopian market. The Ethiopian ambassador to the UAE, Sulieman Defedo, stated that the UAE is one of the most important investment sources for Ethiopia in the future. 

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Given this, it is very unlikely that Saudi Arabia and the UAE will favour one side over the other. They would rather try to walk under the rain showers avoiding, as much as possible, getting wet.

 

Does Egypt have other options? 

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At present, Addis Ababa is insisting on commencing the second filling of the dam in July 2021, even without an agreement. However, Cairo and Khartoum demand an establishment of consensus that preserves their water installations and ensures the continued flow of their annual share of the Nile’s water, as outlined in the legacy agreements. If Egypt seeks a military solution to overcome the GERD crisis, it will potentially face international opposition and may be subject to sanctions and blockade.

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The practical military options include stand-off destruction, seizure, occupation and deconstruction. Stand-off destruction can be quickly discarded. The dam is currently filled with 5 billion m³, sufficient to cause a catastrophic inundation in Sudan and probably Egypt as well. Seizure of the dam would be challenging both politically and military. The nearest airport is at Ad Damazid in Sudan at a distance of 100 km. The nearest Egyptian airbase is 1200 km further west over sovereign Sudanese territory. Egypt, a regional military power, has had no experience and is not well equipped for expeditionary warfare. It could not mount this operation without Sudanese support. 

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Ethiopia holds the ultimate threat of creating an inundation torrent and Ad Damazid Airfield would lie squarely in its path. Alternatively, it could cut off the Blue Nile River flow completely. Though Ethiopia has very few military options, it has plenty of other cards to play. A probable option for Egypt would be for the threat of military intervention to be raised and even played through steps of escalation. This might persuade Addis Ababa to return to conciliatory talks. It is clearly in Egypt’s interest to seek a resolution to the problem in the near future. If they delay until after the second filling of the dam this summer, there will already be 18 billion cubic metres of water in the dam.

 

[1] Egypt, Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Congo, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, and South Sudan

[2] J. Gwyn Griffith, Hecataeus and Herodotus on “A Gift of the River”, in Journal of Near Eastern Studies, Vol. 25, No. 1pp. 57-61 (The University of Chicago Press, Jan. 1966).

[3] John Milton, Paradise Lost (London 1667).

[4] Charles-Jacques Poncet, A Voyage to Ethiopia Made in the Years 1698, 1699, and 1700 (London 1709)

[5] James Bruce, Travels to Discover the Source of the Nile (London 1804).

[6] John Lewis Burckhardt, Travels in Nubia (London 1819).

[7] Puckler Muskau, Egypt under Mehemet Ali (London 1845).

 

[8] H. A. Macmichael, A History of the Arabs in the Sudan: And Some Account of the People who Preceded them and of the Tribes Inhabiting Dárfūr (Cambridge: UniversityPress, 1922).

[9] United Nations, 2014, “Financing Africa’s massive projects”, Africa Renewal

[10] The World Bank, 2018, “Ethiopia’s Transformational Approach to Universal Electrification” 

[11] BBC, 2020, “Ethiopia’s River Nile dam: How it will be filled” 

[12] The United Nations Population Fund Data estimates that  Ethiopia’s population will reach 178.8 million in 2041, and 208.7 million in 2051

[13] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-Wa0w2P7Uo; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6rxHLIZyEU ( (Last accessed 22.05.2021)

[14] According to the United Nations Population Fund Data- the population of Egypt is expected to reach 143.3 million in 2041 and 163.2 million in 2051

[15] Lumumba, P.L.O., "The Interpretation of the 1929 Treaty and Its Legal Relevance and Implications for the Stability of the Region." African Sociological Review / Revue Africaine De Sociologie 11, no. 1 (2007): 10-24. Accessed May 23, 2021. http://www.jstor.org/stable/24487583.

[16] BBC, 2013, “Ethiopia ratifies River Nile treaty amid Egypt tensions”

[17] Thomson Reuters, 2018, “Who controls the world’s longest river?”

[18] BBC, 2020, “River Nile dam: Reservoir filling up, Ethiopia confirms”

[19] AlJazeera, 2021, “Sudan threatens legal action if Ethiopia dam filled without deal” 

[20] Embassy of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia in the UK,“ Ethiopia’s statement at the UN Security Council on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam”

[21] According to the United Nations Population Fund data, it is expected that the population of Sudan will reach 69.5 million in 2041 and 83 million in 2051.

[22] The Rousires Reservoir is a hydroelectric and concrete dam named after the city of Rousires in Sudan, close to the border with Ethiopia, and is 550 km awayfrom the capital, Khartoum. It was constructed in 1952 AD, to store water from the Blue Nile River for use in irrigation of agricultural lands. Subsequent amendments were made to it, the last of which was completed by ten meters in early 2013, which increased its capacity to generate electricity and raised the storage capacity of the dam to 7.4 billion cubic meters.

[23] Dubai, United Arab Emirates (CNN) 13.8.2020.

[24] Dubai, Alarabiya Net, 12.4.2021.

[25] The New Arab, London, 30.3.2021

[26] Alsharq Alawsat (Saudi Arabia)- The Arab International Newspaper, 3.12.2015 

[27] The New Arab, London, 24.10.2019

[28] Thomson Reuters, “In peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea, UAE lends a helping hand”, 08.05.2018.